Sandhill Weather- Olin,Iowa USA

Updated:  Fri, 30-Jul-2010 7:55am CDT 
  Cloudy, Dry Temperature: 69.0°F   /hr Humidity: 85% Dew Point: 64.3°F Wind: SSE  2.5 mph Gust: 1.0 mph Pressure: 30.028 inHg  Steady Rain Today: 0.00 in UV-index: 0.0  None

000
FXUS63 KDVN 300808
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
308 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN SD TO NORTHEAST KS AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN MO. NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IN THE PLAINS CONTINUED TO FEED
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING
AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS NORTHWEST IA. A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA BUT THE FORCING IS MUCH WEAKER IN THE DVN
CWA...COMPARED TO FARTHER TO THE WEST. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE
HOVERING AROUND 70 ACROSS THE CWA. ..HAASE..

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WEAK WARM ADVECTION THIS PERIOD WITH WARM FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE
STAYING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. WILL BE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTION AS IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THESE
CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
TONIGHT. WILL ONLY DEPICT SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO WEAK FORCING. THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DVN CWA CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT. ALSO THE MAIN VORT MAX IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. BELIEVE THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL HAS THE RIGHT
IDEA. MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SO
WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SPEAKING OF THE CLOUDS...
THIS SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOWER 80S SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
ONE-HALF INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS TO THE
RIVERS. ..HAASE..

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
SATURDAY BEHIND OUR FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE
CLOUDY AND COOL...AND MAY EVEN HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE DRAGS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW.  WE
MAY NEED TO REDUCE TEMPERATURES STILL FURTHER IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ON SATURDAY WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING IN.  SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THIS MOISTURE AROUND IT
WILL BE GOOD FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE WINDS DROP OFF OVERNIGHT.
HAVE KEPT TO PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT POTENTIAL LOOKS
FAIRLY HIGH FOR SOME DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IF WE GET SOME GOOD
RAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES DOWN ACROSS THE CWA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO IN PLACE.  IT SHOULD ACTUALLY BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 80S.

WE RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MONDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING SHIFTING EAST...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT GETS DRAGGED DOWN
ACROSS THE CWA IN THE LATE MONDAY TIME-MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  IT
REMAINS IN THE AREA INTO TUESDAY TO KEEP THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT
COMPLICATED.  FOR NOW HAVE KEPT HIGHEST CHANCE POPS TO MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THINGS COULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALREADY AND HAVE PUT IN SOME CHANCE POPS THERE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90
AGAIN...RAISING THE SPECTER OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IF DEWPOINTS
REMAIN POOLED ALONG THE FRONT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT LATER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ANOTHER RIPPLE MOVES ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL STILL BE DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS...CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  FOR NOW THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT WITH THAT BOUNDARY NOT VERY FAR AWAY...IT
WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE FORECAST TO NEED SOME POPS.  IN
FACT...THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE
ROLLING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MADE NO CHANGES TO
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FOR NOW...BUT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN PERFORMING
VERY WELL LATELY AND HAVE USED IT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT.
..LE..

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MAY BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. ..HAASE..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

HAASE/LE

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion